his myth shattering book reveals the methods Nouriel Roubini used to
foretell the current crisis before other economists saw it coming and
shows how those methods can help us make sense of the present and
prepare for the future.
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini electrified his profession and the
larger financial community by predicting the current crisis well in
advance of anyone else. Unlike most in his profession who treat economic
disasters as freakish once-in-a-lifetime events without clear cause,
Roubini, after decades of careful research around the world, realized
that they were both probable and predictable. Armed with an
unconventional blend of historical analysis and global economics,
Roubini has forced politicians, policy makers, investors, and market
watchers to face a long-neglected truth: financial systems are
inherently fragile and prone to collapse.
Drawing on the
parallels from many countries and centuries, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen
Mihm, a professor of economic history and a New York Times Magazine
writer, show that financial cataclysms are as old and as ubiquitous as
capitalism itself. The last two decades alone have witnessed comparable
crises in countries as diverse as Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan,
and Argentina. All of these crises-not to mention the more sweeping
cataclysms such as the Great Depression-have much in common with the
current downturn. Bringing lessons of earlier episodes to bear on our
present predicament, Roubini and Mihm show how we can recognize and
grapple with the inherent instability of the global financial system,
understand its pressure points, learn from previous episodes of
`irrational exuberance,` pinpoint the course of global contagion, and
plan for our immediate future. Perhaps most important, the
authors-considering theories, statistics, and mathematical models with
the skepticism that recent history warrants-explain how the world`s
economy can get out of the mess we`re in, and stay out.
In
Roubini`s shadow, economists and investors are increasingly realizing
that they can no longer afford to consider crises the black swans of
financial history. A vital and timeless book, Crisis Economics proves calamities to be not only predictable but also preventable and, with the right medicine, curable.
EAN: 9781594202506
Vydavateľstvo: Penguin Press
Autori: Nouriel Roubini
Rok vydania: 2010
Jazyk: Anglický